Mini Rant V — Weather Forecasting

The other day at work, on Wednesday to be precise, we decided to check the weather, specifically the outlook for Friday. Not being patient enough to turn on the weather network and wait for the local forecast, we logged on and checked the online forecast. Thing is, we foolishly decided to check a few different online forecasts, and got significantly different results. Environment Canada didn't agree with Weather Underground and or The Weather Network online, with predicted highs with as much as six degrees of variance. We're talking Celsius here, so that's like 11 degrees Fahrenheit.

Just for fun I looked up the forecast for Tuesday (it's very early in the morning on Sunday). Weather Underground is calling for 4° C with a chance of rain. Environment Canada is saying periods of snow with a high of 0° C and a -5° low. At Yahoo! Canada weather it's 1° C high/ -6° low and cloudy. The Weather Network is covering all the bases with a 1° C high, -9° low and and nice non specific rain or snow. So from four different forecasts we have a 15 degree temperature spread and maybe snow or maybe rain or maybe neither. Nice and precise, no?

All this has got me wondering just how much of a scam forecasting the weather actually is. If highly trained professionals come up with such diverse results, how accurate can they really be? I always thought at meteorology was supposed to be a reasonable precise science, not a total crapshoot like psychology.

The thing is, even though I trust the weather about as much as I trust a guy selling kidneys from the trunk of an '83 LeBaron, I don't ignore it. If I'm driving, I'll have the radio on most of the time, and when the forecast is coming up I'll leave it on the station even if the current song is something awful (which it usually is). I call the Environment Canada weather line to hear the latest info. So although I don't believe the weather, I still listen to it entirely too often. I think that might be the biggest scam of all.